Technology, Automation and the Future of Work

I had this discussion with a friend this afternoon and he shared this article. Great read.

Personally I’m of the opinion that we are doomed completely. Best case scenario is a drying up of middle class and a terrible income divide, worst case is complete machine take over, with a few super rich guys at the very top. (If they don’t all fly out to Mars in Elon Musk’s rockets)

I’ve heard a number of people, including Peter Thiel, argue that technology will always need to collaborate with humans. But to me this argument is very weak considering the fact that every single major tech companies and their mother-in-laws are investing in AI and intelligent machines, not to mention Elon Musk and friends freeing up $1Billion for AI research.

Personally I’m going to start deeping my feet into the Agricultural business waters because man must eat, and I believe industrial machines will become cheap enough to enable sustainable mid to low scale Agri Business.

Maybe technology won’t be putting people out of jobs per se. Frankly, the only jobs machines can take over from humans are jobs that require a high degree of rote. Please don’t cite the AI written script as proof of anything. It was shit. Like “they” say, it’s not about getting the self-driving car to be correct 99% of the time. It’s getting it to 99.9%.

A positive from “technology taking over our jobs” will be having a lot of humans take a stab at problems that have eluded humanity for a long while. Hello Cancer, stupid Multiple Sclerosis etc. Oh, there’s no cure for Greed. That one is on us.

P.S: Didn’t read the article you linked. So I’m just responding to the general “Mommy, technology is putting us out of jobs” jabber.

Appeal to authority much?

OpenAI? EL OH EL.

Actually clerical, computational and analytical jobs, many of which make up middle income jobs are the ones taking the hit right now. Faster computer processing abilities are making it easier to do those jobs.

Also machine learning and data driven research analytics mean that machines will also help with the cancer part.

Just like this your post, many people who argue against this fully automated future base their arguments on the limitations of the currently available technology forgetting that the point of the research and funds is to improve them. Open source also adding to accelerate the improvements.

I’ll like to know where you pulled that stat from. Please epp.

I’m fairly certain I don’t need the latest gen processor to perform any clerical duties.

What, you think people just started doing ML 2 years ago?

Just like your post, most people who argue in favour of this Singularity have no clue how hard the challenge AI researchers are facing creating AGI.

LOL. Money and people. Works well every time.

I’m really rolling my eyes here. It’s not a zero-sum game. Technology “takes” job on the one hand, on the other hand, humans are free to expend their energy on other problems.

EDIT
I read the article you linked above. Good read. Quality stuff as always from MIT Tech Review.

This is what I have for Erik Brynjolfsson and the Singularity Gang, correlation does not imply causation.

Everybody is “fucking” these days :grinning:

Computers/Automation will take away some Jobs and will also create newer ones. The future were AI will be pervasive will be a knowledge driven future. So your biceps won’t be the only thing talking. Based on modern trends, no matter how good AI gets, we won’t trust it 100%. We won’t completely take humans out of the loop.

BMW has factory with robot arms and each arm cost £7000 and they are able to churn out 1000 car builds per day. In as much as the factory workers were fired, you still need to hire people to service the arms, to update and run tests on the software, to modify software to handle new car builds.

To me I think the future will be one were computers will augment our abilities and free us to focus on other tasks. Sometimes it is better to talk to a human doctor than a blue screen with digital eyes. :slight_smile:

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Worth taking a look. Well worth the 15 mins. And something to think about.

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People talk about how jobs are killed by new technologies. They forget the many industries and wealth that emerge as a result of these technologies.

The world won’t crash because of AI. New jobs, new industries and everyone will be great for it. And actual AI like magical type, in itself is at least 20-50 years away. The AI you’ll experience now will be bots and software related like in searches, and newsfeed and games.

Really?

Won’t the quest for better efficiency (dealing with humans is always messy) and ultimately more profit ensure that those “new jobs” also get automated and everyone gets worst for it?

Whether it’s at least 20 or 50 years, wouldn’t us or our children or their children be affected by it?

EXACTLY!!!

They keep thinking that a company that creates tools that will automate jobs will now go ahead and hire people, rather than use said tools themselves. The better the technology does, the more it gets adopted so that the jobs created by the technology is going to be done by technology too.

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No further comment if this is how you predict it, or think AI would come.

This video should have been the original post. It captures all the points I had in mind.

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Not trying to predict anything. Just something we all need to think about.

We all hope for a great future. And while we embrace opportunities, we also need to always consider the threats.

Learning from history and given human nature of always being motivated by greed. I will definitely say there are valid threats with AI.

Jobs moved from advanced economies to developing economies because of cheap labour cost and ultimately greater profit. Jobs are now being automated for the same reasons. The machines are in the long term cheaper and much more efficient.

AI thus present the significant threat of MOST JOBS (not only low-wage jobs) being taken over by machines.

I have a slightly different opinion about AI, and that is how Tony Fadwell of Nest sees it: instead of the Artificial Intelligence, he prefers to call it Intelligent Assistance. Now Artificial Intelligence and machine learning and so on which will power the next waves of technological revolution depend and will keep on relying on more data input (from various sources like typewritten queries, instructions, voice commands, described sets of phenomena and so on) to keep optimizing any platform they power. But one thing is certain: they don’t have and will never achieve intuition, instincts and self will (I don’t believe in the apocalyptic predictions of Elon Musk and Professor Stephen Hawking) because the qualities of intuition and instincts are purely human traits: even two identical twins would react to and seek for information on the same issue/occurrence in different ways, and an AI-powered platform to which these queries are made to, despite having been optimized by probably billions of previous inputs from so many other people, may likely not provide more than 50% of a satisfying response/solution to each of these twins. There are over seven billion people on earth each with about 1.5kg of brain, each of which has over 100 billion neurons (cells, and each cell has about 3 billion base pairs that make up its genome–DNA-- that can be transcribed (copied) in an almost infinite number of possibilities to build instructions that are responsible for every aspect of human functional existence) which interact with each other in an infinite number of possibilities to give rise to each person’s functional and instinctive uniqueness–and that’s what I will like call Natural Intelligence, NI.(At a point I was thinking of a way to delineate every one of these 100 billion neurons and they way they interact with each other to produce human instinctual function so that I could convert this into a form a supercomputer would understand and interpret to create a new form of AI; but I realized that the brain signature I will be feeding any supercomputer would only be the interaction of these neurons at that particular point in time, thereby simulating only one possibility, out of billions of possibilities a human brain circuitry may take for any input and output process, in this supercomputer. Mehn, AI is billions of light years behind NI)

For sure, jobs, involving routine processes which require no form of intuition or creativity, will likely be taken over by AI-powered robots and platforms. And this will require a drastic shift in our education system to a dimension that will now involve teaching any field of knowledge, be it the formal education type or vocational training, on the solid foundation of problem-solving, analytical thinking, creativity, innovation, evaluation and research, in order to harness the potentials of this NI every human has towards creating new categories of jobs that AI-powered machines and platforms will totally rely on for their functioning and survival. Ned Ludd was so scared of what he foresaw of steam-powered machines taking over their jobs during the Industrial Revolution that he led a protest against the use of these machines back in the 19th century, but the world today is relatively better than it was in the 19th century.

AI or intelligent assistants will only take over jobs that require no creativity or innovation; the only odd thing, which I think is good, that will happen is that it will force different stakeholders–government of nations, leaders in various industries and so on–to pivot the education and training of humans on the planet towards total adoption of the components of critical thinking some of which I highlighted above to harness our NI to arm each and every one of us with solutions that AI will totally rely on.

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You need to watch the video that was posted above. Those routine jobs you mentioned make up up to 90% of available jobs. If machines take over even 20% of them, we will find ourselves in a global economic catastrophy.

The Nest guy that is claiming it’s just Intelligent Assistance has forgotten that there are lots of people who are currently earning their living by assisting. Economies are powered by industries and sectors that are made up of people largely doing routine work and knowledge processing. People keep claiming we will fall back to creative jobs and natural human ingenuity, but what percentage of total jobs does creative industry cater for? No economy is powered by poets, musicians and movie producers. When machines wipe out the routine jobs, what will be left of us?

People keep assuming that we will cross that bridge when we get there, but what will be the cost of our current lack of preparation, considering that there are major corporations investing heavily into getting us there faster? What happens when technology doesn’t replace the jobs it took fast enough? Or when it replaces all the high paying jobs and leaves only low paying ones and income inequality widens? I think we should start thinking about that now!

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By creative jobs I never meant music or poetry or whatever you mentioned above; rather, I meant jobs that will create the solutions that the so-called AI will rely on to do the routine works. In addition, just like sb said, there are millions of problems in the world today that require critical-thinking-powered human minds and hands to tackle: from climate change and its corresponding consequences through poor crop yields across different countries to myriads of problems in health care.

Moreover, and like I said initially, it’s high time we compared the cost implications of humans doing routine jobs and machines doing them (Which is more sustainable? Which is likely to drive the world into global economic recession where there wouldn’t be enough money to pay wages for jobs that add little or nothing to economic growth engine if comparisons were made?) in order to drive policies in global education curricula that will now focus on the creative and problem-solving aspects of every sector of global economy to march the rate of loss of routine jobs to machines with the creation of critical-thinking-powered jobs that only the Natural Intelligence of humans can execute, whether in the context of a CEO of a multi-billion dollar company or a low-wage earner in lowest cadre of jobs.

Observations from the video: horses never made mechanical minds, humans made them.

The highlighted capabilities of a Doctor Bot in this video are such a dumb and lack-of-evidence and out-of-touch-with-medical-realities conjured stream of thought. Why?
IBM Watson relies on input in the form of health queries from patients but the diagnoses it will make from such queries rely on the vast repository of human-described and documented basic medical and clinical research findings on the pathogenesis and pathophysiology that give rise to each disease entity; moreover, so many diseases have overlying symptoms, that’s why we have what’s called differential diagnoses, and you’ll still need the physical examination of a doctor and other health personnel and some invasive and minimally invasive and non-invasive investigations to arrive at a diagnosis, all of which are done by humans with intellectual instincts that no AI/Bots/machine will ever achieve; these diagnoses form a database that Watson draws from (and sometimes, a new disease entity emerges that has never been seen before which is why we have what we call case reports, case series, all of which are investigated via experiments for characterization). Life is complex and its future with such an infinite combination possibilities that AI (which is retrospective most of the time in its function) can’t ever be reliable, leading to increase in demand for human minds and hands; and the fact is that stuffs like IBM Watson are coming up because of shortage of humans to handle the rising volume of things like health queries across the globe, so AI is just going to be Intelligent Assistants, doing the routine stuffs so that humans can focus on the critical-thinking-demanding aspect which entails description of new disease entities and development of new management modalities for them which can now be spoon-fed into IBM Watson for wider scale tests. In addition, take for instance the human genome project (the global scientific collaboration that saw to the outlining of the entire DNA of the human body); functions of thousands of genes in the human genome are yet to be detailed, and I wonder why AI has not made any prospective attempts at doing this without any input from humans).

I did write an article on the threat posed by the emergence of drug resistant microorganisms to human health and how we can create a database of the genetic mutations that give rise to these resistance threats in each disease-causing organism, and use AI to simulate future emergence of resistance based on the UNPREDICTABLE nature of each human being in complying to drug prescriptions, their individual genetic makeup and other environmental factors that play different roles to drug resistance emergence, so as to be better prepared in terms of drug development; but the truth is that the combination possibilities during DNA/RNA replications, transcriptions and translations to proteins and their modifications in response to all these UNPREDICTABLE factors are almost infinite for most of these organisms that many Watsons may be required for a start. We do need tools like Watson for a start in this area of Molecular Medicine though, so once again AI is more of an Intelligent Assistant.

AI composing music based on what feelings or input that aren’t fed into it by humans? Human composers compose based on retrospective and prospective emotions and interactions (past experiences, dreams at night, future aspirations and ambitions and so on) which many other humans relate to. I wonder what sort of music AI will compose and how humans will relate to music composed from mechanical mixing, totally independent of human input.

Granted speed belongs to machines because of their non-biological makeup, and that will affect a lot of jobs; however, I think it’s going to spur a wave of radical changes in ways humans (including those who lost the routine jobs to machines) approach every single problem in the world–there’s going to be a new dimension of human behaviour characterized by the employment of critical thinking skills, NI, innate in only humans towards every aspect of job creation and execution in the world. Intuition and instinct lie with what I call NI, Natural Intelligence, which is exclusive to the human mind.

Conclusion
If only every human could realize the fact that the best of AI we can ever have can’t march the processing power, combination possibilities and complexities that were employed at the molecular level to ensure their existence from birth up to whatever age they are currently, then the world would start working towards harnessing the NI of humans from the lowest paid worker to the highest earner

Note: Intelligent Assistant is the way people like Tony Fadwell of Nest and Rony Abovitz of Magic Leap (the company building breakthrough mixed reality technologies) see AI
AI is here to stay and make us better and smarter, and I’m working towards using it to positively change health care in different dimensions in time to come.

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You’re a very patient fellow. Kudos to you.

Admittedly, the narrator in the video had it going “well” for him until he compared horses to humans. Like WTF? What were the horses supposed to do? Transform themselves to EV cars because someone discovered steam engines?

Technology revolutionized farming; tractors and machinery made large scale farming possible. People didn’t die. More farms opened, people who had farms already opened more “branches”. People were hired to man the machineries. People freaked out when ATMS “came” to Nigeria. Tellers didn’t die. Banks opened more branches, hired more people. Humans were hired to man the machines.

We adapted. That’s what humans do. We are not horses.

Just because people are throwing money and effort into something doesn’t mean they’ll get a proportional reward. We’ve been throwing billions at Cancer research since God knows when. And what do we have to show for it? Nada!

Some problems are just NP-complete. Oh, let’s create immortals, let’s fix HIV and Cancer, hey there Multiple Sclerosis. We are not closer to understanding the way the brain even works. It remains a mystery.

And then the dude goes to introduce Baxter as an example of anything. Really, Baxter? WTF?

Machines will take jobs, they will take a lot of jobs. But we will be better for it. And that’s not enough to paint a gloomy picture. Humans are not horses.

Now this discussion, if we can even call it that is beginning to border on ridiculousness.

:v:

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Nobody ever mentioned intuition, instinct, and self-will. We are just discussing bots taking over a lot of human jobs.

  1. Critical-thinking powered jobs and low wage? Are you serious? Can any critical thinking powered job be low wage? If your job does indeed require "critical thinking, will you accept a low wage?

  2. What does a critical thinking job actually entail? Mainly it entails analyzing situations (based on data) and making informed decisions, isn’t it?

We are creating bots that are doing that better than how a human possibly could. We are creating bots that teach themselves. They constantly get better at what they do and they never get tired.

Note that are just at the beginning of AI. If the bots already in existence in that video do or don’t impress you, wait 10 or 20 years.

Yes, and human made them (mechanical minds) in search of greater efficiency. The Same humans create factory bots that take over human jobs in the same search for greater efficiency.

The Same humans are making AI that are and “might” be taking over most “creative jobs” in the same quest for greater efficiency and ultimately greater profit.

Again, we should remember that we human are driven a lot of times by GREED. We always want to make more and think the problems we create in the process will sort themselves out. Our leaders here (driven by greed) are robbing us blind, mostly thinking we will always survive as we have thus far. We are worst for it.

The world of full of humans driven by greed making decisions at the detriment of other humans.

We all hope for a great future. AI, in my opinion, does present a lot of opportunities but also pose significant threats. It seems we are not preparing well for such threats.

Your point is machines will create more jobs for humans, our argument is when machines create such jobs, other machines will take it because they are cheaper to use. Imagine a department in a University that employs 15 lecturers teaching 25 courses earning an average N300,000 monthly. Their job is knowledge communication from a defined curriculum, assessment and grading and a layer of human interaction for communicating with students. All but the last one can already be done by a computer and intensive work is ongoing on the communication part. So where is the incentive to continue paying N4.5Million monthly in salaries when a $400 computer robot connected to the internet can do that? That happens in other sectors. Mr Business owner cuts down cost and triples revenues by replacing 50% of work force with machines that are 4x more efficient, and you hope that he will create jobs that will employ humans? Economics will always win.

The creative, research jobs you are talking about, it’s a tiny fraction of the labour force that do that. The rest of workers follow instructions and do knowledge based repetitive jobs. My question remains:

What happens when global employment rate drops by 20% because business owners now think it is cheaper to use a bot rather than humans? The economic depression will be bad. No one wants to discuss that, we are all hoping humans will adapt. That adaptation process will be way more painful if we don’t have this “ridiculous” discussion right now, because some of the smartest and richest people in the world are pushing us to this point really fast!

You keep laughing at current technology as though they won’t get better. That is what I find ridiculous.